Heating, Air Conditioning, and Refrigeration Mechanics and Installers Job Outlook
The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects employment of heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers to grow 10.9% from 2025 to 2035 (about 48,200 more jobs), with about 40,600 openings a year, and the May 2025 median pay of $61,010 a year ranks 416th of 825 occupations.
- Projected change
- +10.9%
- Openings a year
- 40,600
- Median pay
- $61,010
- Pay rank
- 416th of 825
Is employment of heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers growing or shrinking?
Growing: BLS projects employment of heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers to rise 10.9% (about 48,200 more jobs) from 2025 to 2035, faster than the 3.5% projected across all occupations. That is faster than the +5.4% summed from BLS's employment levels across the 51 installation, maintenance, and repair occupations with a projection. That change ranks 53rd of 830 projected occupations.
| Measure | Figure |
|---|---|
| Employment, 2025 | 440,900 |
| Employment, 2035 | 489,100 |
| Projected change | +10.9% |
| Openings a year | 40,600 |
Source: BLS Employment Projections, 2025 to 2035. A projection is a BLS estimate, not a count. The 440,900 jobs here differ from the 409,670 on the salary page because Employment Projections also counts the self-employed and a wider set of workers, while OEWS counts wage and salary jobs in May 2025. BLS published these projections on August 27, 2026; checked November 10, 2026. Confirm any figure in the BLS Employment Projections tables.
BLS's reasons for this projection are at the Occupational Outlook Handbook. State projections are at Projections Central; projections by industry are left to BLS. Education, licensing and work context at O*NET.
How many job openings are there each year?
About 40,600 openings a year, from job growth and from workers leaving the occupation, the 98th most of 830 occupations. About 88% of them replace workers who change occupations or leave the labor force; the rest come from the 4,820 jobs added in an average year.
Source: BLS Employment Projections, 2025 to 2035.
How does pay for heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers rank?
The median of $61,010 a year ranks 416th of 825 occupations with a published median. It sits in the upper half of occupations on openings and the lower half on pay.
Source: BLS OEWS national file, May 2025. Wage and salary jobs only; the self-employed are not counted. OEWS pay excludes overtime, shift differentials and non-production bonuses. Ranks count only the occupations with that published figure: 830 for projected change, 830 for openings, 825 for median pay, which is why the totals differ.
What does it take to start?
- Typical entry-level education: postsecondary nondegree award.
- Typical on-the-job training: long-term on-the-job training.
Source: BLS Employment Projections, 2025 to 2035, education and training assignments.
How do related jobs compare on outlook?
| Occupation | Change | Openings a year | Median pay |
|---|---|---|---|
| Control and Valve Installers and Repairers, Except Mechanical Door | +4.3% | 3,600 | $74,340 |
| Home Appliance Repairers | +1.9% | 2,800 | $50,990 |
| Maintenance and Repair Workers, General | +4.2% | 148,700 | $49,590 |
| Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Workers, All Other | +2.6% | 18,300 | $49,230 |
| Industrial Machinery Mechanics | +17.8% | 44,400 | $64,520 |
| Electric Motor, Power Tool, and Related Repairers | +4.4% | 1,400 | $56,210 |
| Helpers--Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Workers | +5.3% | 13,600 | $39,630 |
| Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics | +5.0% | 66,200 | $50,620 |
Related occupations from O*NET; projections from BLS Employment Projections, 2025 to 2035; pay from BLS OEWS, May 2025.